It's All Macro Now

29 May, 2026

Every major OECD government runs a structural deficit. Financed by issuing debt. The debt rolls into more debt. None of the political conditions for paying it down exist.

OECD demographics are aging fast. Pension funds are heavily loaded with equities. The net worth of the global elite is basically 100% company shares. Two different pools. Same dependency.

The system got addicted to cheap liquidity. It can no longer function without it.

Two mechanisms keep asset prices rising:

• Monetary debasement. More currency in circulation means each unit buys less. Hard assets — stocks, real estate, gold — do not multiply at the same rate. Their prices rise mechanically.

• Liquidity misallocation. A large share of new money does not flow into new factories, new jobs, or new productive capacity. It flows into existing assets — buybacks, secondary markets, real estate. No new value is created, just more claims on the same supply. This is the Cantillon effect, updated for the QE era.

The implication is structural. Governments and central banks cannot let markets fall meaningfully. If they do, pension funds collapse, social systems lose their funding base, defense budgets shrink, and the wealth of those who hold the levers evaporates. Politicians are, in aggregate, old and wealthy. They are also the ones holding the levers.

The incentive is clean. They need asset prices to stay up more than you do.

The likely consequence: the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the MSCI World will continue trending up over long horizons, punctuated by corrections that get bought. Auto-DCA into a low-fee global index ETF remains the best risk-adjusted trade-off available to an individual investor with normal cognitive bandwidth. Dips are entry points. The Fed cannot let the market drown without breaking the system it is paid to protect.

Ride the wave.

Two asymmetric edges for above-market returns:

• Read national policy documents. Budget annexes, industrial strategies, infrastructure plans, defense procurement schedules. Extract mid-term priorities. Identify which sectors will receive disproportionate public capital. Buy the best public companies in those sectors, or the sector ETF. Governments telegraph spending years in advance — most retail investors do not read.
• Watch what politicians buy. US representatives, senators, and the inner circles of sitting administrations file disclosures. They move in elite networks with asymmetric information. Quiver Quantitative aggregates the data. It is public.

The game is rigged. At least it's rigged in a predictable direction.

G7 debt in late 2025:

#Business #english